Common challenges were analysed by the participants
Following the second session of the event “Spain-Australia Dialogue: Thoughts on a Changing World”, it became clear that international terrorism and US defence policy are key security issues for Australia and the European Union alike. The round table was moderated by the Director General for Foreign Policy for North America, Asia and Pacific at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Fidel Sendagorta.
The topic of the round table, “Challenges to stability and security in Asia-Pacific and Europe,” was addressed by Australian Leaders Liam Neville (ASPI) and Garth Pratten (SDSC) as well as by General Enrique de Ayala Marín, an analyst at Fundación Alternativas, and Fernando Delage, a lecturer on International Relations at Universidad Pontificia de Comillas ICAI-ICADE.
The analysts explained that now is a delicate time for US relations with Australia and Europe. According to Garth Pratten, “the challenge for Australia is to keep some distance from Trump while protecting its alliance with the US.” For him, the best policy is “to wait and see what happens”.
As for US-Europe relations, General Enrique de Ayala advocates for “preserving transatlantic relations”, but says “that doesn't mean they should remain unchanged.” The current situation was established after World War Two and “the circumstances have changed (…) US interests no longer mirror those of Europe.”
Garth Pratten said North Korea was the most pressing security challenge for Australia in the Pacific. The interests of China and the US converge there, and Fidel Sendagorta referred to it in his introduction as “the first major crisis Donald Trump could face”. The speakers agreed on the unpredictability of the situation in Korea, both because of Kim Jong-Un (“a man we do not understand,” according to Pratten) and US foreign policy, which in the words of Fernando Delage might be “more conventional than we think, but we don't know yet”. Delage also stated that “neither the US nor China will risk confrontation, which would be catastrophic for both”.
In discussions around China, the speakers agreed that the country’s main interest is maintaining stability in the region so that trade does not suffer. Liam Nevill said that China’s “main priority is economic and domestic security”.
With regard to tensions around the South China Sea, General Enrique de Ayala said China's position “is no different from what the UK did in the Mediterranean during the 19th century: they settled on a number of islands to guarantee maritime traffic.” In his opinion, there will most likely be some kind of “agreement” to balance “freedom of navigation, crucial for trade, and China's maritime security”.
Fernando Delage asked his Australian peers about the possibility of a cooperation alliance between Australia, Japan and India in the face of pressure from China. Liam Nevill found the idea “appealing” and noted Japan's interest in reaching security agreements with Australia, despite the legal challenges this would bring about. Garth Pratten, in turn, said India shared this interest, but added that “it is hard; there is a lot of distance and we do not see eye to eye”.
During the Q&A, the Foundation's Secretary General, Alonso Dezcallar, wanted to know the panellists' opinions regarding international terrorism. There was a general consensus on the need to fight it, even from Australia, for which it is not currently a serious threat. Enrique de Ayala listed the keys to this fight: defence through international cooperation of intelligence networks and the exchange of information in the short term and, in the long run, supporting the countries of origin in their fight with police training and economic aid and supporting democratic movements to prevent the rise of extreme ideologies.
